社会融资总额

Total 社会融资 (“社会融资规模” or “社会融资总量,”also referred to in English as“aggregate financing to the real economy”) refers to the aggregate volume of funds provided by China’s domestic financial system to the private sector of the real economy within a given timeframe.

中国政府将其作为衡量货币政策形成的流动性衡量工具。

TSF包括通过银行系统的间接融资,以及通过资本市场上的股票和债券的直接融资。

它不包括海外资金流入,例如外汇或外国直接投资未偿还的资金,以及政府将其收益用于国家支出的政府债券。

TSF是增值概念, 因为 它旨在衡量实体经济在给定时间段(无论是一个月,一个季度还是一年)中从整个金融系统获得的资金总额。 

TSF由十个子索引组成,包括:

  1. 人民币贷款。
  2. 外币贷款。
  3. 委托贷款。
  4. 信托贷款。
  5. 未贴现的银行承兑汇票。
  6. 公司债券。
  7. 非金融公司国内股权融资。
  8. 保险公司还款。
  9. 投资物业。
  10. 通过其他金融工具融资。

这些子索引可以分为三个主要的重叠类别。

The first is all funding support provided by financial institutions towards the real economy, which includes sub-indices 1. RMB loans, 2. foreign currency loans, 3. entrusted loans, 4. trust loans, 6. corporate bonds and 7. non-financial corporate equity held by financial institutions, insurance company repayments and investment property.

The second is standardised financial instruments used by actors in the real economy to obtain direct financing with the assistance of financial institutions, including sub-indices 5. bank bills of acceptance, 7. non-financial corporate equity fund-raising and and 6. corporate bond issuance.

第三是属于人民币贷款第一分类指数的其他形式的融资,包括小额贷款公司的贷款,贷款公司的贷款和行业基金投资。

PBOC definition of total 社会融资 was expanded in 2018 to include the asset-backed securities of depository financial institutions and loans written off starting in July of that year, as well as local government special bonds in September.

全面社会融资的基本原则

TSF报告的四个统计原则是:国内原则,融资原则,合并原则和增加估值原则。

1.国内原则

TSF的接收者和提供者都是国内实体,这意味着外国直接投资,外国债务和外汇资金尚未偿还。

2.融资原则。

The financing principle dictates that sovereign bond issuance is not included in TSF, 因为 the issuer of sovereign bonds is the government, which means that any funds raised fall under the category of fiscal policy.

3.合并原则。

TSF仅指所有金融机构和金融市场通过直接或间接方式向实体经济提供的资金支持。

因此,合并原则要求在计算TSF时必须合并金融机构之间的相互债务和信用关系。

为了避免重复计算,在TSF的计算过程中会抵消这些相互的信用关系。例如,金融机构相互持有的股权或债券不包括在TSF中。

4.增加了估价原则。

TSF is an added value concept, and thus refers to the difference in the total debt balance at the beginning and start of a period, or the amount of debt issued or arising in a given period minus the amount repaid during the same period.

TSF发展史

TSF是一个相对较新的概念,于2010年在胡温政府的支持下首次亮相。

At the start of 2010 Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made reference to“maintaining a rational scale and pace of 社会融资”(保持合理的社会融资规模和节奏), while in the same year the Central Economic Work Conference (中央经济工作会议) made reference to“maintaining rational total 社会融资” (保持合理的社会融资规模).

自2011年初起“social financing”(社会融资)开始越来越频繁地出现在有关金融政策的官方文件中。

2011年1月,人民’中国银行参考“maintaining rational total 社会融资”在其年度工作会议上。

PBOC released its“2010 Fourth Quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report”on 30 January 2011, which made reference to“focusing more on the role of monetary volume in guiding expectations during macro-adjustments, focusing more on balancing the level of support of finance for the economy from the perspective of total 社会融资…it is necessary to maintain rational total 社会融资, strengthen the role of the market in resource allocation, and further raise endogenous drivers of economic development” (“在宏观调控中需要更加注重货币总量的预期引导作用,更加注重从社会融资总量的角度来衡量金融对经济的支持力度,要保持合理的社会融资规模,强化市场配置资源功能,进一步提高经济发展的内生动力”).

随后,这一概念成为了中国人民银行从中国过渡到中国的金融和经济讨论的焦点。“适当松动” (适度宽松) to “stabilisation” (稳健).

到2011年,中国人民银行将TSF和TSF的步伐作为调整和稳定货币政策的目标。

In January 2011 the Development Research Centre of China’s State Council held the“International Financial Market Analysis Annual Conference”(国际金融市场分析年会), while Guanghua School of Management at Peking University held the“Guanghua New Year Forum”(光华新年论坛), where various experts weighed in on the significance of the new concept.

Li Wei, then chair of the State Council’s Development Research Centre, said that the introduction of TSF was part of efforts by the central government to contain the inflation created by the stimulus plan launched in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis to shore up China’s economic growth.

“The current focus of macro-economic policy proposed for this year by the central government is the suppression of inflation. Over the past two years expansionary monetary and fiscal policy was adopted in order to deal with crisis and avoid a large-scale decline in the economy.

“This has had a highly pronounced effect when it comes to raising economic growth, but any policy of any country in any era will be necessity have two sides. The drawbacks of this policy are gradually becoming apparent, and high inflation is one of them.”